Semiconductors vs the Market
ThemesBuy SOXX (iShares Semiconductor ETF) and hold it. Benchmark is buying and holding SPY over exactly the same period.
See this in the terminal — live earnings bands, fair value and rates.
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The chip cycle buried the index. Every drawdown along the way was the price.
The rule. Buy SOXX (iShares Semiconductor ETF) and hold it. Benchmark is buying and holding SPY over exactly the same period.
What actually happened.
- $10,000 became $381,358. The same $10,000 in S&P 500 (SPY) became $84,528. This strategy beat the benchmark by $296,830.
- Compounded at 27.5% a year vs 15.3% for the benchmark.
- Best year: 2023 (+67%). Worst year: 2022 (-35%). This is not a smooth ride.
The catch. At its worst, this strategy fell -46% from a prior peak — deeper than the benchmark's -34%. Would you have held through that? Most people don't. That's the whole game.
The takeaway. It worked here — but "it worked in the past" is the most expensive sentence in investing. The edge is real only if it survives costs, taxes, and the drawdown above. Show your work, then decide.
Drawdown from prior peak
Calendar-year returns
| Line | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Semiconductors (SOXX) | +7% | +7% | +42% | +30% | -2% | +38% | +40% | -6% | +62% | +53% | +44% | -35% | +67% | +13% | +41% | +67% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +8% | +16% | +32% | +13% | +1% | +12% | +22% | -5% | +31% | +18% | +29% | -18% | +26% | +25% | +18% | +13% |
Both lines start on the same day — the later of the backtest window and SOXX's own inception — so neither fund gets a head start. How we test
Rebalance: none (buy and hold both lines) · Window: 2011-09-02 → 2026-09-02 · Last run Sep 2, 2026 · JSON