{ "generated": "2026-09-02T23:05:01.287Z", "count": 22, "disclaimer": "Educational only. Hypothetical historical backtests. Not investment advice.", "strategies": [ { "slug": "last-years-losers", "name": "Buy Last Year's Losers", "tag": "mean-reversion", "description": "Each January, buy last year's 10 worst S&P 500 stocks. Do the beaten-down bounce back?", "rule_text": "On the first trading day of each January, buy the 10 S&P 500 stocks with the LOWEST total return during the prior calendar year (that are still in the index), equal weighted. Hold for the year, then rebalance.", "benchmark_name": "S&P 500 (SPY)", "headline": "$10,000 became $27,775 with Last year's 10 losers, vs $84,528 in the S&P 500 (SPY).", "window": { "start": "2011-09-02", "end": "2026-09-02", "years": 15 }, "last_run": "2026-09-02T22:54:17Z", "primary_label": "Last year's 10 losers", "benchmark_label": "S&P 500 (SPY)", "summary": { "final_value_of_10k": 27775.25, "benchmark_final_value_of_10k": 84528.5, "cagr": 0.0705, "max_drawdown": -0.2829 }, "metrics": { "Last year's 10 losers": { "start_date": "2011-09-02", "end_date": "2026-09-02", "years": 15, "total_return": 1.7775, "cagr": 0.0705, "max_drawdown": -0.2829, "volatility": 0.1059, "sharpe": 0.527, "final_value_of_10k": 27775.25, "best_year": "2013", "best_year_return": 0.54, "worst_year": "2015", "worst_year_return": -0.0019, "calendar_year_returns": { "2011": 0.0283, "2012": 0.4507, "2013": 0.54, "2014": 0.2247, "2015": -0.0019, "2016": -0.001, "2017": -0.001, "2018": -0.001, "2019": -0.001, "2020": -0.001, "2021": -0.001, "2022": -0.001, "2023": -0.001, "2024": -0.001, "2025": -0.001, "2026": -0.001 } }, "S&P 500 (SPY)": { "start_date": "2011-09-02", "end_date": "2026-09-02", "years": 15, "total_return": 7.4529, "cagr": 0.1529, "max_drawdown": -0.3372, "volatility": 0.1683, "sharpe": 0.932, "final_value_of_10k": 84528.5, "best_year": "2013", "best_year_return": 0.3231, "worst_year": "2022", "worst_year_return": -0.1818, "calendar_year_returns": { "2011": 0.0772, "2012": 0.1599, "2013": 0.3231, "2014": 0.1346, "2015": 0.0123, "2016": 0.12, "2017": 0.2171, "2018": -0.0457, "2019": 0.3122, "2020": 0.1833, "2021": 0.2873, "2022": -0.1818, "2023": 0.2618, "2024": 0.2489, "2025": 0.1772, "2026": 0.1279 } } }, "url": "/ideas/last-years-losers", "json": "/ideas/last-years-losers.json" }, { "slug": "last-years-winners", "name": "Chase Last Year's Winners", "tag": "momentum", "description": "Each January, buy last year's 10 best S&P 500 stocks. Does momentum carry over?", "rule_text": "On the first trading day of each January, buy the 10 S&P 500 stocks with the highest total return during the prior calendar year, equal weighted. Hold for the year, then rebalance.", "benchmark_name": "S&P 500 (SPY)", "headline": "$10,000 became $17,078 with Last year's 10 winners, vs $84,528 in the S&P 500 (SPY).", "window": { "start": "2011-09-02", "end": "2026-09-02", "years": 15 }, "last_run": "2026-09-02T22:54:17Z", "primary_label": "Last year's 10 winners", "benchmark_label": "S&P 500 (SPY)", "summary": { "final_value_of_10k": 17077.57, "benchmark_final_value_of_10k": 84528.5, "cagr": 0.0363, "max_drawdown": -0.148 }, "metrics": { "Last year's 10 winners": { "start_date": "2011-09-02", "end_date": "2026-09-02", "years": 15, "total_return": 0.7078, "cagr": 0.0363, "max_drawdown": -0.148, "volatility": 0.0842, "sharpe": 0.354, "final_value_of_10k": 17077.57, "best_year": "2013", "best_year_return": 0.3741, "worst_year": "2011", "worst_year_return": -0.0257, "calendar_year_returns": { "2011": -0.0257, "2012": 0.1427, "2013": 0.3741, "2014": 0.1305, "2015": -0.0016, "2016": -0.001, "2017": -0.001, "2018": -0.001, "2019": -0.001, "2020": -0.001, "2021": -0.001, "2022": -0.001, "2023": -0.001, "2024": -0.001, "2025": -0.001, "2026": -0.001 } }, "S&P 500 (SPY)": { "start_date": "2011-09-02", "end_date": "2026-09-02", "years": 15, "total_return": 7.4529, "cagr": 0.1529, "max_drawdown": -0.3372, "volatility": 0.1683, "sharpe": 0.932, "final_value_of_10k": 84528.5, "best_year": "2013", "best_year_return": 0.3231, "worst_year": "2022", "worst_year_return": -0.1818, "calendar_year_returns": { "2011": 0.0772, "2012": 0.1599, "2013": 0.3231, "2014": 0.1346, "2015": 0.0123, "2016": 0.12, "2017": 0.2171, "2018": -0.0457, "2019": 0.3122, "2020": 0.1833, "2021": 0.2873, "2022": -0.1818, "2023": 0.2618, "2024": 0.2489, "2025": 0.1772, "2026": 0.1279 } } }, "url": "/ideas/last-years-winners", "json": "/ideas/last-years-winners.json" }, { "slug": "top10-marketcap", "name": "Own the 10 Biggest", "tag": "weighting", "description": "Each January, buy the 10 largest S&P 500 companies, equal weight. Do giants keep winning?", "rule_text": "On the first trading day of each January, buy the 10 largest S&P 500 companies by market capitalization, equal weighted (10% each). Hold for the year, then rebalance. Market cap approximated as price x shares outstanding.", "benchmark_name": "S&P 500 (SPY)", "headline": "$10,000 became $121,112 with 10 biggest (equal wt), vs $84,528 in the S&P 500 (SPY).", "window": { "start": "2011-09-02", "end": "2026-09-02", "years": 15 }, "last_run": "2026-09-02T22:54:17Z", "primary_label": "10 biggest (equal wt)", "benchmark_label": "S&P 500 (SPY)", "summary": { "final_value_of_10k": 121112.26, "benchmark_final_value_of_10k": 84528.5, "cagr": 0.1809, "max_drawdown": -0.2652 }, "metrics": { "10 biggest (equal wt)": { "start_date": "2011-09-02", "end_date": "2026-09-02", "years": 15, "total_return": 11.1112, "cagr": 0.1809, "max_drawdown": -0.2652, "volatility": 0.1577, "sharpe": 0.856, "final_value_of_10k": 121112.26, "best_year": "2023", "best_year_return": 0.3942, "worst_year": "2022", "worst_year_return": -0.2272, "calendar_year_returns": { "2011": 0.0596, "2012": 0.1129, "2013": 0.2849, "2014": 0.0921, "2015": 0.0968, "2016": 0.1232, "2017": 0.3149, "2018": 0.0227, "2019": 0.3508, "2020": 0.3906, "2021": 0.291, "2022": -0.2272, "2023": 0.3942, "2024": 0.2669, "2025": 0.1927, "2026": 0.1191 } }, "S&P 500 (SPY)": { "start_date": "2011-09-02", "end_date": "2026-09-02", "years": 15, "total_return": 7.4529, "cagr": 0.1529, "max_drawdown": -0.3372, "volatility": 0.1683, "sharpe": 0.932, "final_value_of_10k": 84528.5, "best_year": "2013", "best_year_return": 0.3231, "worst_year": "2022", "worst_year_return": -0.1818, "calendar_year_returns": { "2011": 0.0772, "2012": 0.1599, "2013": 0.3231, "2014": 0.1346, "2015": 0.0123, "2016": 0.12, "2017": 0.2171, "2018": -0.0457, "2019": 0.3122, "2020": 0.1833, "2021": 0.2873, "2022": -0.1818, "2023": 0.2618, "2024": 0.2489, "2025": 0.1772, "2026": 0.1279 } } }, "url": "/ideas/top10-marketcap", "json": "/ideas/top10-marketcap.json" }, { "slug": "missing-best-days", "name": "Missing the Best (and Worst) Days", "tag": "timing", "description": "What happens if you miss the 10 best days? The 10 worst? Time in market vs timing.", "rule_text": "Start with SPY buy and hold. Then build two hypotheticals: one that earns a 0% return on the 10 single best days of the window, and one that skips the 10 worst days. Everything else identical.", "benchmark_name": "S&P 500 (SPY), fully invested", "headline": "$10,000 became $44,634 with Miss 10 best days, vs $84,528 in the S&P 500 (SPY), fully invested.", "window": { "start": "2011-09-02", "end": "2026-09-02", "years": 15 }, "last_run": "2026-09-02T22:54:17Z", "primary_label": "Miss 10 best days", "benchmark_label": "Fully invested (SPY)", "summary": { "final_value_of_10k": 44633.88, "benchmark_final_value_of_10k": 84528.5, "cagr": 0.1049, "max_drawdown": -0.495 }, "metrics": { "Miss 10 best days": { "start_date": "2011-09-02", "end_date": "2026-09-02", "years": 15, "total_return": 3.4634, "cagr": 0.1049, "max_drawdown": -0.495, "volatility": 0.1587, "sharpe": 0.71, "final_value_of_10k": 44633.88, "best_year": "2013", "best_year_return": 0.3231, "worst_year": "2020", "worst_year_return": -0.2348, "calendar_year_returns": { "2011": 0.0772, "2012": 0.1599, "2013": 0.3231, "2014": 0.1346, "2015": 0.0123, "2016": 0.12, "2017": 0.2171, "2018": -0.0916, "2019": 0.3122, "2020": -0.2348, "2021": 0.2873, "2022": -0.2244, "2023": 0.2618, "2024": 0.2489, "2025": 0.0653, "2026": 0.1279 } }, "Fully invested (SPY)": { "start_date": "2011-09-02", "end_date": "2026-09-02", "years": 15, "total_return": 7.4529, "cagr": 0.1529, "max_drawdown": -0.3372, "volatility": 0.1683, "sharpe": 0.932, "final_value_of_10k": 84528.5, "best_year": "2013", "best_year_return": 0.3231, "worst_year": "2022", "worst_year_return": -0.1818, "calendar_year_returns": { "2011": 0.0772, "2012": 0.1599, "2013": 0.3231, "2014": 0.1346, "2015": 0.0123, "2016": 0.12, "2017": 0.2171, "2018": -0.0457, "2019": 0.3122, "2020": 0.1833, "2021": 0.2873, "2022": -0.1818, "2023": 0.2618, "2024": 0.2489, "2025": 0.1772, "2026": 0.1279 } }, "Miss 10 worst days": { "start_date": "2011-09-02", "end_date": "2026-09-02", "years": 15, "total_return": 15.3864, "cagr": 0.2049, "max_drawdown": -0.245, "volatility": 0.1588, "sharpe": 1.256, "final_value_of_10k": 163863.66, "best_year": "2020", "best_year_return": 1.0532, "worst_year": "2022", "worst_year_return": -0.1818, "calendar_year_returns": { "2011": 0.0772, "2012": 0.1599, "2013": 0.3231, "2014": 0.1346, "2015": 0.0123, "2016": 0.12, "2017": 0.2171, "2018": -0.0457, "2019": 0.3122, "2020": 1.0532, "2021": 0.2873, "2022": -0.1818, "2023": 0.2618, "2024": 0.2489, "2025": 0.3152, "2026": 0.1279 } } }, "url": "/ideas/missing-best-days", "json": "/ideas/missing-best-days.json" }, { "slug": "buy-the-dip", "name": "Buy the Dip", "tag": "timing", "description": "Wait in cash, buy SPY only when it's 10% off its high, hold a year. Does patience pay?", "rule_text": "Hold cash (0% return). Whenever SPY closes at least 10% below its prior all-time high AND you are currently in cash, buy SPY and hold for one year, then sell back to cash. Benchmark is staying fully invested in SPY the whole time.", "benchmark_name": "S&P 500 (SPY), always invested", "headline": "$10,000 became $24,824 with Buy the dip (cash otherwise), vs $84,528 in the S&P 500 (SPY), always invested.", "window": { "start": "2011-09-02", "end": "2026-09-02", "years": 15 }, "last_run": "2026-09-02T22:54:17Z", "primary_label": "Buy the dip (cash otherwise)", "benchmark_label": "Always invested (SPY)", "summary": { "final_value_of_10k": 24823.77, "benchmark_final_value_of_10k": 84528.5, "cagr": 0.0625, "max_drawdown": -0.2983 }, "metrics": { "Buy the dip (cash otherwise)": { "start_date": "2011-09-02", "end_date": "2026-09-02", "years": 15, "total_return": 1.4824, "cagr": 0.0625, "max_drawdown": -0.2983, "volatility": 0.1344, "sharpe": 0.519, "final_value_of_10k": 24823.77, "best_year": "2020", "best_year_return": 0.2802, "worst_year": "2022", "worst_year_return": -0.0953, "calendar_year_returns": { "2011": 0, "2012": 0, "2013": 0, "2014": 0, "2015": 0.0879, "2016": 0.0797, "2017": 0, "2018": -0.0115, "2019": 0.0822, "2020": 0.2802, "2021": 0.042, "2022": -0.0953, "2023": 0.2618, "2024": 0.0677, "2025": 0.2512, "2026": -0.0288 } }, "Always invested (SPY)": { "start_date": "2011-09-02", "end_date": "2026-09-02", "years": 15, "total_return": 7.4529, "cagr": 0.1529, "max_drawdown": -0.3372, "volatility": 0.1683, "sharpe": 0.932, "final_value_of_10k": 84528.5, "best_year": "2013", "best_year_return": 0.3231, "worst_year": "2022", "worst_year_return": -0.1818, "calendar_year_returns": { "2011": 0.0772, "2012": 0.1599, "2013": 0.3231, "2014": 0.1346, "2015": 0.0123, "2016": 0.12, "2017": 0.2171, "2018": -0.0457, "2019": 0.3122, "2020": 0.1833, "2021": 0.2873, "2022": -0.1818, "2023": 0.2618, "2024": 0.2489, "2025": 0.1772, "2026": 0.1279 } } }, "url": "/ideas/buy-the-dip", "json": "/ideas/buy-the-dip.json" }, { "slug": "sell-in-may", "name": "Sell in May and Go Away", "tag": "timing", "description": "Own SPY only Nov-Apr, sit in cash May-Oct. Is the old seasonal saying real?", "rule_text": "Hold SPY from the first trading day of November through the last trading day of April. Sit in cash (0% return) from May through October. Benchmark is SPY buy and hold.", "benchmark_name": "S&P 500 (SPY), buy and hold", "headline": "$10,000 became $28,907 with Sell in May (cash May-Oct), vs $84,528 in the S&P 500 (SPY), buy and hold.", "window": { "start": "2011-09-02", "end": "2026-09-02", "years": 15 }, "last_run": "2026-09-02T22:54:17Z", "primary_label": "Sell in May (cash May-Oct)", "benchmark_label": "Buy and hold (SPY)", "summary": { "final_value_of_10k": 28906.55, "benchmark_final_value_of_10k": 84528.5, "cagr": 0.0733, "max_drawdown": -0.3372 }, "metrics": { "Sell in May (cash May-Oct)": { "start_date": "2011-09-02", "end_date": "2026-09-02", "years": 15, "total_return": 1.8907, "cagr": 0.0733, "max_drawdown": -0.3372, "volatility": 0.1317, "sharpe": 0.605, "final_value_of_10k": 28906.55, "best_year": "2019", "best_year_return": 0.26, "worst_year": "2022", "worst_year_return": -0.1344, "calendar_year_returns": { "2011": 0.0063, "2012": 0.1358, "2013": 0.1897, "2014": 0.0496, "2015": 0.0048, "2016": 0.0761, "2017": 0.1158, "2018": -0.0756, "2019": 0.26, "2020": 0.0439, "2021": 0.1622, "2022": -0.1344, "2023": 0.2459, "2024": 0.0956, "2025": -0.0484, "2026": 0.0568 } }, "Buy and hold (SPY)": { "start_date": "2011-09-02", "end_date": "2026-09-02", "years": 15, "total_return": 7.4529, "cagr": 0.1529, "max_drawdown": -0.3372, "volatility": 0.1683, "sharpe": 0.932, "final_value_of_10k": 84528.5, "best_year": "2013", "best_year_return": 0.3231, "worst_year": "2022", "worst_year_return": -0.1818, "calendar_year_returns": { "2011": 0.0772, "2012": 0.1599, "2013": 0.3231, "2014": 0.1346, "2015": 0.0123, "2016": 0.12, "2017": 0.2171, "2018": -0.0457, "2019": 0.3122, "2020": 0.1833, "2021": 0.2873, "2022": -0.1818, "2023": 0.2618, "2024": 0.2489, "2025": 0.1772, "2026": 0.1279 } } }, "url": "/ideas/sell-in-may", "json": "/ideas/sell-in-may.json" }, { "slug": "dogs-of-the-dow", "name": "Dogs of the Dow", "tag": "value", "description": "Each January, buy the 10 highest-yielding Dow stocks. Does chasing yield beat the index?", "rule_text": "On the first trading day of each January, buy the 10 highest dividend-yielding stocks in the Dow 30, equal weighted. Hold for the year, then rebalance. Yield is estimated from trailing 12-month dividends over price.", "benchmark_name": "Dow Jones (DIA)", "headline": "$10,000 became $17,787 with Dogs of the Dow, vs $64,379 in the Dow Jones (DIA).", "window": { "start": "2011-09-02", "end": "2026-09-02", "years": 15 }, "last_run": "2026-09-02T22:54:17Z", "primary_label": "Dogs of the Dow", "benchmark_label": "Dow Jones (DIA)", "summary": { "final_value_of_10k": 17786.63, "benchmark_final_value_of_10k": 64379.45, "cagr": 0.0391, "max_drawdown": -0.09 }, "metrics": { "Dogs of the Dow": { "start_date": "2011-09-02", "end_date": "2026-09-02", "years": 15, "total_return": 0.7787, "cagr": 0.0391, "max_drawdown": -0.09, "volatility": 0.05, "sharpe": 0.591, "final_value_of_10k": 17786.63, "best_year": "2013", "best_year_return": 0.2482, "worst_year": "2016", "worst_year_return": -0.001, "calendar_year_returns": { "2011": 0.1354, "2012": 0.1553, "2013": 0.2482, "2014": 0.0986, "2015": -0.0002, "2016": -0.001, "2017": -0.001, "2018": -0.001, "2019": -0.001, "2020": -0.001, "2021": -0.001, "2022": -0.001, "2023": -0.001, "2024": -0.001, "2025": -0.001, "2026": -0.001 } }, "Dow Jones (DIA)": { "start_date": "2011-09-02", "end_date": "2026-09-02", "years": 15, "total_return": 5.4379, "cagr": 0.1322, "max_drawdown": -0.367, "volatility": 0.1632, "sharpe": 0.845, "final_value_of_10k": 64379.45, "best_year": "2013", "best_year_return": 0.2964, "worst_year": "2022", "worst_year_return": -0.0702, "calendar_year_returns": { "2011": 0.0949, "2012": 0.0994, "2013": 0.2964, "2014": 0.0972, "2015": 0.0009, "2016": 0.1637, "2017": 0.2808, "2018": -0.0374, "2019": 0.2503, "2020": 0.0959, "2021": 0.2083, "2022": -0.0702, "2023": 0.1602, "2024": 0.1482, "2025": 0.1471, "2026": 0.1131 } } }, "url": "/ideas/dogs-of-the-dow", "json": "/ideas/dogs-of-the-dow.json" }, { "slug": "equal-vs-cap-weight", "name": "Equal Weight vs Cap Weight", "tag": "weighting", "description": "Does treating every S&P 500 stock the same beat the cap-weighted index?", "rule_text": "Buy and hold RSP (S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF) versus SPY (cap-weighted S&P 500). No rebalancing beyond what each ETF does internally.", "benchmark_name": "S&P 500 (SPY)", "headline": "$10,000 became $64,061 with Equal weight (RSP), vs $84,528 in the S&P 500 (SPY).", "window": { "start": "2011-09-02", "end": "2026-09-02", "years": 15 }, "last_run": "2026-09-02T22:54:17Z", "primary_label": "Equal weight (RSP)", "benchmark_label": "S&P 500 (SPY)", "summary": { "final_value_of_10k": 64060.81, "benchmark_final_value_of_10k": 84528.5, "cagr": 0.1318, "max_drawdown": -0.3904 }, "metrics": { "Equal weight (RSP)": { "start_date": "2011-09-02", "end_date": "2026-09-02", "years": 15, "total_return": 5.4061, "cagr": 0.1318, "max_drawdown": -0.3904, "volatility": 0.1739, "sharpe": 0.801, "final_value_of_10k": 64060.81, "best_year": "2013", "best_year_return": 0.3554, "worst_year": "2022", "worst_year_return": -0.1162, "calendar_year_returns": { "2011": 0.0662, "2012": 0.1716, "2013": 0.3554, "2014": 0.1406, "2015": -0.0267, "2016": 0.145, "2017": 0.1852, "2018": -0.0784, "2019": 0.2891, "2020": 0.1266, "2021": 0.2941, "2022": -0.1162, "2023": 0.137, "2024": 0.1279, "2025": 0.1121, "2026": 0.1503 } }, "S&P 500 (SPY)": { "start_date": "2011-09-02", "end_date": "2026-09-02", "years": 15, "total_return": 7.4529, "cagr": 0.1529, "max_drawdown": -0.3372, "volatility": 0.1683, "sharpe": 0.932, "final_value_of_10k": 84528.5, "best_year": "2013", "best_year_return": 0.3231, "worst_year": "2022", "worst_year_return": -0.1818, "calendar_year_returns": { "2011": 0.0772, "2012": 0.1599, "2013": 0.3231, "2014": 0.1346, "2015": 0.0123, "2016": 0.12, "2017": 0.2171, "2018": -0.0457, "2019": 0.3122, "2020": 0.1833, "2021": 0.2873, "2022": -0.1818, "2023": 0.2618, "2024": 0.2489, "2025": 0.1772, "2026": 0.1279 } } }, "url": "/ideas/equal-vs-cap-weight", "json": "/ideas/equal-vs-cap-weight.json" }, { "slug": "magnificent-7", "name": "The Magnificent 7", "tag": "weighting", "description": "Equal-weight the 7 tech giants since 2015 vs QQQ. What did concentration really pay?", "rule_text": "From January 2015, hold Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta and Tesla in equal weight (one-seventh each), rebalanced back to equal weight on the first trading day of each January. Benchmark is QQQ (the Nasdaq-100 ETF).", "benchmark_name": "Nasdaq-100 (QQQ)", "headline": "$10,000 became $9,891 with Magnificent 7 (equal wt), vs $74,948 in the Nasdaq-100 (QQQ).", "window": { "start": "2015-01-01", "end": "2026-09-02", "years": 11.67 }, "last_run": "2026-09-02T22:54:17Z", "primary_label": "Magnificent 7 (equal wt)", "benchmark_label": "Nasdaq-100 (QQQ)", "summary": { "final_value_of_10k": 9890.55, "benchmark_final_value_of_10k": 74948.34, "cagr": -0.0009, "max_drawdown": -0.0109 }, "metrics": { "Magnificent 7 (equal wt)": { "start_date": "2015-01-01", "end_date": "2026-09-02", "years": 11.67, "total_return": -0.0109, "cagr": -0.0009, "max_drawdown": -0.0109, "volatility": 0.0008, "sharpe": -0.807, "final_value_of_10k": 9890.55, "best_year": "2015", "best_year_return": 0, "worst_year": "2019", "worst_year_return": -0.001, "calendar_year_returns": { "2015": 0, "2016": -0.001, "2017": -0.001, "2018": -0.001, "2019": -0.001, "2020": -0.001, "2021": -0.001, "2022": -0.001, "2023": -0.001, "2024": -0.001, "2025": -0.001, "2026": -0.001 } }, "Nasdaq-100 (QQQ)": { "start_date": "2015-01-02", "end_date": "2026-09-02", "years": 11.67, "total_return": 6.4948, "cagr": 0.1885, "max_drawdown": -0.3512, "volatility": 0.2193, "sharpe": 0.899, "final_value_of_10k": 74948.34, "best_year": "2023", "best_year_return": 0.5486, "worst_year": "2022", "worst_year_return": -0.3258, "calendar_year_returns": { "2015": 0.0977, "2016": 0.071, "2017": 0.3266, "2018": -0.0013, "2019": 0.3896, "2020": 0.4841, "2021": 0.2742, "2022": -0.3258, "2023": 0.5486, "2024": 0.2558, "2025": 0.2077, "2026": 0.1564 } } }, "url": "/ideas/magnificent-7", "json": "/ideas/magnificent-7.json" }, { "slug": "sma-200-timing", "name": "The 200-Day Line", "tag": "timing", "description": "Own SPY above its 200-day average, cash below, checked monthly. Does trend-following work?", "rule_text": "On the first trading day of each month, look at SPY versus its 200-day simple moving average. If SPY closed ABOVE its 200-day average, hold SPY for the month; if BELOW, sit in cash (0% return) for the month. Benchmark is SPY buy and hold.", "benchmark_name": "S&P 500 (SPY), buy and hold", "headline": "$10,000 became $41,727 with 200-day timing (SPY/cash), vs $84,528 in the S&P 500 (SPY), buy and hold.", "window": { "start": "2011-09-02", "end": "2026-09-02", "years": 15 }, "last_run": "2026-09-02T22:54:17Z", "primary_label": "200-day timing (SPY/cash)", "benchmark_label": "Buy and hold (SPY)", "summary": { "final_value_of_10k": 41726.51, "benchmark_final_value_of_10k": 84528.5, "cagr": 0.0999, "max_drawdown": -0.2551 }, "metrics": { "200-day timing (SPY/cash)": { "start_date": "2011-09-02", "end_date": "2026-09-02", "years": 15, "total_return": 3.1727, "cagr": 0.0999, "max_drawdown": -0.2551, "volatility": 0.1215, "sharpe": 0.847, "final_value_of_10k": 41726.51, "best_year": "2013", "best_year_return": 0.3231, "worst_year": "2022", "worst_year_return": -0.2097, "calendar_year_returns": { "2011": 0, "2012": 0.1599, "2013": 0.3231, "2014": 0.1346, "2015": -0.0426, "2016": 0.1053, "2017": 0.2171, "2018": -0.0631, "2019": 0.1003, "2020": 0.1452, "2021": 0.2873, "2022": -0.2097, "2023": 0.0877, "2024": 0.2489, "2025": 0.1173, "2026": 0.0207 } }, "Buy and hold (SPY)": { "start_date": "2011-09-02", "end_date": "2026-09-02", "years": 15, "total_return": 7.4529, "cagr": 0.1529, "max_drawdown": -0.3372, "volatility": 0.1683, "sharpe": 0.932, "final_value_of_10k": 84528.5, "best_year": "2013", "best_year_return": 0.3231, "worst_year": "2022", "worst_year_return": -0.1818, "calendar_year_returns": { "2011": 0.0772, "2012": 0.1599, "2013": 0.3231, "2014": 0.1346, "2015": 0.0123, "2016": 0.12, "2017": 0.2171, "2018": -0.0457, "2019": 0.3122, "2020": 0.1833, "2021": 0.2873, "2022": -0.1818, "2023": 0.2618, "2024": 0.2489, "2025": 0.1772, "2026": 0.1279 } } }, "url": "/ideas/sma-200-timing", "json": "/ideas/sma-200-timing.json" }, { "slug": "dual-momentum", "name": "Dual Momentum", "tag": "momentum", "description": "Own US or international stocks — whichever is stronger — unless bonds beat both. Monthly.", "rule_text": "On the first trading day of each month, measure the trailing 12-month total return of SPY (US stocks), EFA (developed international stocks) and BND (US bonds). Hold whichever of SPY or EFA has the higher 12-month return, but only if that return also beats BND's; otherwise hold BND for the month. Benchmark is SPY buy and hold.", "benchmark_name": "S&P 500 (SPY), buy and hold", "headline": "$10,000 became $20,905 with Dual momentum (SPY/EFA/BND), vs $84,528 in the S&P 500 (SPY), buy and hold.", "window": { "start": "2011-09-02", "end": "2026-09-02", "years": 15 }, "last_run": "2026-09-02T22:54:17Z", "primary_label": "Dual momentum (SPY/EFA/BND)", "benchmark_label": "S&P 500 (SPY)", "summary": { "final_value_of_10k": 20905.01, "benchmark_final_value_of_10k": 84528.5, "cagr": 0.0504, "max_drawdown": -0.3362 }, "metrics": { "Dual momentum (SPY/EFA/BND)": { "start_date": "2011-09-02", "end_date": "2026-09-02", "years": 15, "total_return": 1.0905, "cagr": 0.0504, "max_drawdown": -0.3362, "volatility": 0.1205, "sharpe": 0.361, "final_value_of_10k": 20905.01, "best_year": "2021", "best_year_return": 0.2309, "worst_year": "2022", "worst_year_return": -0.2259, "calendar_year_returns": { "2011": -0.0581, "2012": 0.0587, "2013": 0.2269, "2014": 0.1109, "2015": -0.0001, "2016": 0.025, "2017": 0.1171, "2018": -0.0587, "2019": 0.0178, "2020": 0.0033, "2021": 0.2309, "2022": -0.2259, "2023": 0.0419, "2024": 0.1809, "2025": 0.1107, "2026": 0.0732 } }, "S&P 500 (SPY)": { "start_date": "2011-09-02", "end_date": "2026-09-02", "years": 15, "total_return": 7.4529, "cagr": 0.1529, "max_drawdown": -0.3372, "volatility": 0.1683, "sharpe": 0.932, "final_value_of_10k": 84528.5, "best_year": "2013", "best_year_return": 0.3231, "worst_year": "2022", "worst_year_return": -0.1818, "calendar_year_returns": { "2011": 0.0772, "2012": 0.1599, "2013": 0.3231, "2014": 0.1346, "2015": 0.0123, "2016": 0.12, "2017": 0.2171, "2018": -0.0457, "2019": 0.3122, "2020": 0.1833, "2021": 0.2873, "2022": -0.1818, "2023": 0.2618, "2024": 0.2489, "2025": 0.1772, "2026": 0.1279 } } }, "url": "/ideas/dual-momentum", "json": "/ideas/dual-momentum.json" }, { "slug": "turn-of-month", "name": "The Turn of the Month", "tag": "seasonality", "description": "Own SPY only the last 3 and first 2 trading days of each month. Five days a month, cash the rest.", "rule_text": "Hold SPY only on the last three trading days of each calendar month and the first two trading days of the next. Sit in cash (0% return) on every other day — roughly three quarters of the calendar. Benchmark is SPY buy and hold.", "benchmark_name": "S&P 500 (SPY), buy and hold", "headline": "$10,000 became $13,731 with Turn of the month (SPY/cash), vs $84,528 in the S&P 500 (SPY), buy and hold.", "window": { "start": "2011-09-02", "end": "2026-09-02", "years": 15 }, "last_run": "2026-09-02T22:54:17Z", "primary_label": "Turn of the month (SPY/cash)", "benchmark_label": "Buy and hold (SPY)", "summary": { "final_value_of_10k": 13731.49, "benchmark_final_value_of_10k": 84528.5, "cagr": 0.0214, "max_drawdown": -0.1595 }, "metrics": { "Turn of the month (SPY/cash)": { "start_date": "2011-09-02", "end_date": "2026-09-02", "years": 15, "total_return": 0.3731, "cagr": 0.0214, "max_drawdown": -0.1595, "volatility": 0.0776, "sharpe": 0.312, "final_value_of_10k": 13731.49, "best_year": "2022", "best_year_return": 0.1637, "worst_year": "2024", "worst_year_return": -0.0786, "calendar_year_returns": { "2011": -0.0003, "2012": 0.039, "2013": 0.073, "2014": -0.0248, "2015": -0.0097, "2016": 0.0012, "2017": 0.0517, "2018": -0.0381, "2019": -0.0237, "2020": 0.02, "2021": -0.025, "2022": 0.1637, "2023": 0.1422, "2024": -0.0786, "2025": -0.0017, "2026": 0.0609 } }, "Buy and hold (SPY)": { "start_date": "2011-09-02", "end_date": "2026-09-02", "years": 15, "total_return": 7.4529, "cagr": 0.1529, "max_drawdown": -0.3372, "volatility": 0.1683, "sharpe": 0.932, "final_value_of_10k": 84528.5, "best_year": "2013", "best_year_return": 0.3231, "worst_year": "2022", "worst_year_return": -0.1818, "calendar_year_returns": { "2011": 0.0772, "2012": 0.1599, "2013": 0.3231, "2014": 0.1346, "2015": 0.0123, "2016": 0.12, "2017": 0.2171, "2018": -0.0457, "2019": 0.3122, "2020": 0.1833, "2021": 0.2873, "2022": -0.1818, "2023": 0.2618, "2024": 0.2489, "2025": 0.1772, "2026": 0.1279 } } }, "url": "/ideas/turn-of-month", "json": "/ideas/turn-of-month.json" }, { "slug": "golden-cross", "name": "The Golden Cross", "tag": "timing", "description": "Own SPY when the 50-day average is above the 200-day, cash below. TV's favourite signal, tested.", "rule_text": "Hold SPY on every day after its 50-day moving average closed ABOVE its 200-day moving average (a 'golden cross'), and hold cash (0% return) on every day after the 50-day closed BELOW the 200-day (a 'death cross'). Signals are read at the previous close, so nothing is traded on information you did not have. Benchmark is SPY buy and hold.", "benchmark_name": "S&P 500 (SPY), buy and hold", "headline": "$10,000 became $42,456 with Golden cross (SPY/cash), vs $84,528 in the S&P 500 (SPY), buy and hold.", "window": { "start": "2011-09-02", "end": "2026-09-02", "years": 15 }, "last_run": "2026-09-02T22:54:17Z", "primary_label": "Golden cross (SPY/cash)", "benchmark_label": "Buy and hold (SPY)", "summary": { "final_value_of_10k": 42456.26, "benchmark_final_value_of_10k": 84528.5, "cagr": 0.1012, "max_drawdown": -0.3372 }, "metrics": { "Golden cross (SPY/cash)": { "start_date": "2011-09-02", "end_date": "2026-09-02", "years": 15, "total_return": 3.2456, "cagr": 0.1012, "max_drawdown": -0.3372, "volatility": 0.141, "sharpe": 0.756, "final_value_of_10k": 42456.26, "best_year": "2013", "best_year_return": 0.3231, "worst_year": "2022", "worst_year_return": -0.0837, "calendar_year_returns": { "2011": -0.001, "2012": 0.1049, "2013": 0.3231, "2014": 0.1346, "2015": -0.0428, "2016": -0.006, "2017": 0.2171, "2018": 0.0068, "2019": 0.1603, "2020": -0.0441, "2021": 0.2873, "2022": -0.0837, "2023": 0.191, "2024": 0.2489, "2025": 0.0014, "2026": 0.1279 } }, "Buy and hold (SPY)": { "start_date": "2011-09-02", "end_date": "2026-09-02", "years": 15, "total_return": 7.4529, "cagr": 0.1529, "max_drawdown": -0.3372, "volatility": 0.1683, "sharpe": 0.932, "final_value_of_10k": 84528.5, "best_year": "2013", "best_year_return": 0.3231, "worst_year": "2022", "worst_year_return": -0.1818, "calendar_year_returns": { "2011": 0.0772, "2012": 0.1599, "2013": 0.3231, "2014": 0.1346, "2015": 0.0123, "2016": 0.12, "2017": 0.2171, "2018": -0.0457, "2019": 0.3122, "2020": 0.1833, "2021": 0.2873, "2022": -0.1818, "2023": 0.2618, "2024": 0.2489, "2025": 0.1772, "2026": 0.1279 } } }, "url": "/ideas/golden-cross", "json": "/ideas/golden-cross.json" }, { "slug": "permanent-portfolio", "name": "The Permanent Portfolio", "tag": "weighting", "description": "25% each in stocks, long bonds, gold and T-bills, rebalanced yearly. Does the all-weather split work?", "rule_text": "Hold 25% SPY (stocks), 25% TLT (long Treasuries), 25% GLD (gold) and 25% SHV (short-term Treasuries, the cash sleeve), rebalanced back to equal quarters on the first trading day of each January. Benchmark is 100% SPY.", "benchmark_name": "S&P 500 (SPY), 100% stocks", "headline": "$10,000 became $11,194 with Permanent Portfolio (25/25/25/25), vs $84,528 in the S&P 500 (SPY), 100% stocks.", "window": { "start": "2011-09-02", "end": "2026-09-02", "years": 15 }, "last_run": "2026-09-02T22:54:17Z", "primary_label": "Permanent Portfolio (25/25/25/25)", "benchmark_label": "S&P 500 (SPY)", "summary": { "final_value_of_10k": 11193.59, "benchmark_final_value_of_10k": 84528.5, "cagr": 0.0075, "max_drawdown": -0.0802 }, "metrics": { "Permanent Portfolio (25/25/25/25)": { "start_date": "2011-09-02", "end_date": "2026-09-02", "years": 15, "total_return": 0.1194, "cagr": 0.0075, "max_drawdown": -0.0802, "volatility": 0.0241, "sharpe": 0.242, "final_value_of_10k": 11193.59, "best_year": "2014", "best_year_return": 0.0948, "worst_year": "2013", "worst_year_return": -0.0249, "calendar_year_returns": { "2011": -0.0009, "2012": 0.0611, "2013": -0.0249, "2014": 0.0948, "2015": 0, "2016": -0.001, "2017": -0.001, "2018": -0.001, "2019": -0.001, "2020": -0.001, "2021": -0.001, "2022": -0.001, "2023": -0.001, "2024": -0.001, "2025": -0.001, "2026": -0.001 } }, "S&P 500 (SPY)": { "start_date": "2011-09-02", "end_date": "2026-09-02", "years": 15, "total_return": 7.4529, "cagr": 0.1529, "max_drawdown": -0.3372, "volatility": 0.1683, "sharpe": 0.932, "final_value_of_10k": 84528.5, "best_year": "2013", "best_year_return": 0.3231, "worst_year": "2022", "worst_year_return": -0.1818, "calendar_year_returns": { "2011": 0.0772, "2012": 0.1599, "2013": 0.3231, "2014": 0.1346, "2015": 0.0123, "2016": 0.12, "2017": 0.2171, "2018": -0.0457, "2019": 0.3122, "2020": 0.1833, "2021": 0.2873, "2022": -0.1818, "2023": 0.2618, "2024": 0.2489, "2025": 0.1772, "2026": 0.1279 } } }, "url": "/ideas/permanent-portfolio", "json": "/ideas/permanent-portfolio.json" }, { "slug": "crash-hedge-90-10", "name": "The 90/10 Crash Hedge", "tag": "macro", "description": "90% stocks, 10% long Treasuries, rebalanced yearly. Does a small hedge pay for itself?", "rule_text": "Hold 90% SPY (S&P 500) and 10% TLT (20+ year Treasuries), rebalanced back to 90/10 on the first trading day of each January. Benchmark is 100% SPY.", "benchmark_name": "S&P 500 (SPY), 100% stocks", "headline": "$10,000 became $17,909 with 90/10 (SPY/TLT), vs $84,528 in the S&P 500 (SPY), 100% stocks.", "window": { "start": "2011-09-02", "end": "2026-09-02", "years": 15 }, "last_run": "2026-09-02T22:54:17Z", "primary_label": "90/10 (SPY/TLT)", "benchmark_label": "S&P 500 (SPY)", "summary": { "final_value_of_10k": 17908.85, "benchmark_final_value_of_10k": 84528.5, "cagr": 0.0396, "max_drawdown": -0.0787 }, "metrics": { "90/10 (SPY/TLT)": { "start_date": "2011-09-02", "end_date": "2026-09-02", "years": 15, "total_return": 0.7909, "cagr": 0.0396, "max_drawdown": -0.0787, "volatility": 0.0479, "sharpe": 0.622, "final_value_of_10k": 17908.85, "best_year": "2013", "best_year_return": 0.2763, "worst_year": "2016", "worst_year_return": -0.001, "calendar_year_returns": { "2011": 0.0784, "2012": 0.146, "2013": 0.2763, "2014": 0.1479, "2015": 0, "2016": -0.001, "2017": -0.001, "2018": -0.001, "2019": -0.001, "2020": -0.001, "2021": -0.001, "2022": -0.001, "2023": -0.001, "2024": -0.001, "2025": -0.001, "2026": -0.001 } }, "S&P 500 (SPY)": { "start_date": "2011-09-02", "end_date": "2026-09-02", "years": 15, "total_return": 7.4529, "cagr": 0.1529, "max_drawdown": -0.3372, "volatility": 0.1683, "sharpe": 0.932, "final_value_of_10k": 84528.5, "best_year": "2013", "best_year_return": 0.3231, "worst_year": "2022", "worst_year_return": -0.1818, "calendar_year_returns": { "2011": 0.0772, "2012": 0.1599, "2013": 0.3231, "2014": 0.1346, "2015": 0.0123, "2016": 0.12, "2017": 0.2171, "2018": -0.0457, "2019": 0.3122, "2020": 0.1833, "2021": 0.2873, "2022": -0.1818, "2023": 0.2618, "2024": 0.2489, "2025": 0.1772, "2026": 0.1279 } } }, "url": "/ideas/crash-hedge-90-10", "json": "/ideas/crash-hedge-90-10.json" }, { "slug": "bitcoin-sleeve-5", "name": "A 5% Slice of Bitcoin", "tag": "macro", "description": "95% stocks, 5% Bitcoin, rebalanced monthly since 2015. What did a tiny crypto sleeve do?", "rule_text": "From January 2015, hold 95% SPY and 5% Bitcoin (BTC-USD), rebalanced back to 95/5 on the first trading day of each month. Monthly rebalancing keeps the sleeve from quietly becoming the whole portfolio. Benchmark is 100% SPY.", "benchmark_name": "S&P 500 (SPY), 100% stocks", "headline": "$10,000 became $56,036 with 95/5 (SPY/Bitcoin), vs $45,089 in the S&P 500 (SPY), 100% stocks.", "window": { "start": "2015-01-01", "end": "2026-09-02", "years": 11.67 }, "last_run": "2026-09-02T22:54:17Z", "primary_label": "95/5 (SPY/Bitcoin)", "benchmark_label": "S&P 500 (SPY)", "summary": { "final_value_of_10k": 56035.63, "benchmark_final_value_of_10k": 45088.96, "cagr": 0.1592, "max_drawdown": -0.6039 }, "metrics": { "95/5 (SPY/Bitcoin)": { "start_date": "2015-01-01", "end_date": "2026-09-02", "years": 11.67, "total_return": 4.6036, "cagr": 0.1592, "max_drawdown": -0.6039, "volatility": 0.3733, "sharpe": 0.464, "final_value_of_10k": 56035.63, "best_year": "2017", "best_year_return": 1.8009, "worst_year": "2022", "worst_year_return": -0.4755, "calendar_year_returns": { "2015": -0.2078, "2016": 0.4684, "2017": 1.8009, "2018": -0.2235, "2019": 0.0714, "2020": 0.6971, "2021": 0.1157, "2022": -0.4755, "2023": 0.9841, "2024": 0.1335, "2025": -0.1334, "2026": 0.068 } }, "S&P 500 (SPY)": { "start_date": "2015-01-02", "end_date": "2026-09-02", "years": 11.67, "total_return": 3.5089, "cagr": 0.1378, "max_drawdown": -0.3372, "volatility": 0.1757, "sharpe": 0.825, "final_value_of_10k": 45088.96, "best_year": "2019", "best_year_return": 0.3122, "worst_year": "2022", "worst_year_return": -0.1818, "calendar_year_returns": { "2015": 0.0129, "2016": 0.12, "2017": 0.2171, "2018": -0.0457, "2019": 0.3122, "2020": 0.1833, "2021": 0.2873, "2022": -0.1818, "2023": 0.2618, "2024": 0.2489, "2025": 0.1772, "2026": 0.1279 } } }, "url": "/ideas/bitcoin-sleeve-5", "json": "/ideas/bitcoin-sleeve-5.json" }, { "slug": "gold-200dma-timing", "name": "Gold, Only in an Uptrend", "tag": "commodities", "description": "Hold gold only while it is above its 200-day average, cash below. Does trend-following gold work?", "rule_text": "Hold GLD on every day after it closed ABOVE its 200-day moving average, and hold cash (0% return) on every day after it closed below. Benchmark is buying and holding GLD.", "benchmark_name": "Gold (GLD), buy and hold", "headline": "$10,000 became $14,873 with Gold above its 200-day (GLD/cash), vs $21,981 in the Gold (GLD), buy and hold.", "window": { "start": "2011-09-02", "end": "2026-09-02", "years": 15 }, "last_run": "2026-09-02T22:54:17Z", "primary_label": "Gold above its 200-day (GLD/cash)", "benchmark_label": "Buy and hold gold (GLD)", "summary": { "final_value_of_10k": 14872.79, "benchmark_final_value_of_10k": 21981.01, "cagr": 0.0268, "max_drawdown": -0.3674 }, "metrics": { "Gold above its 200-day (GLD/cash)": { "start_date": "2011-09-02", "end_date": "2026-09-02", "years": 15, "total_return": 0.4873, "cagr": 0.0268, "max_drawdown": -0.3674, "volatility": 0.1332, "sharpe": 0.266, "final_value_of_10k": 14872.79, "best_year": "2025", "best_year_return": 0.6368, "worst_year": "2011", "worst_year_return": -0.1673, "calendar_year_returns": { "2011": -0.1673, "2012": -0.0089, "2013": -0.0469, "2014": -0.1461, "2015": -0.0496, "2016": 0.0685, "2017": -0.0357, "2018": -0.0147, "2019": 0.1786, "2020": 0.1788, "2021": -0.1597, "2022": -0.0979, "2023": 0.0673, "2024": 0.2666, "2025": 0.6368, "2026": -0.0151 } }, "Buy and hold gold (GLD)": { "start_date": "2011-09-02", "end_date": "2026-09-02", "years": 15, "total_return": 1.1981, "cagr": 0.0539, "max_drawdown": -0.4515, "volatility": 0.1673, "sharpe": 0.399, "final_value_of_10k": 21981.01, "best_year": "2025", "best_year_return": 0.6368, "worst_year": "2013", "worst_year_return": -0.2833, "calendar_year_returns": { "2011": -0.1705, "2012": 0.066, "2013": -0.2833, "2014": -0.0219, "2015": -0.1067, "2016": 0.0803, "2017": 0.1281, "2018": -0.0194, "2019": 0.1786, "2020": 0.2481, "2021": -0.0415, "2022": -0.0077, "2023": 0.1269, "2024": 0.2666, "2025": 0.6368, "2026": 0.0163 } } }, "url": "/ideas/gold-200dma-timing", "json": "/ideas/gold-200dma-timing.json" }, { "slug": "oil-trend", "name": "Oil, Only in an Uptrend", "tag": "commodities", "description": "Hold a crude oil fund only above its 10-month average, cash below. Trend-following the barrel.", "rule_text": "Hold USO on every day after it closed ABOVE its 10-month (about 210-trading-day) moving average, and hold cash (0% return) on every day after it closed below. Benchmark is buying and holding USO.", "benchmark_name": "Crude oil (USO), buy and hold", "headline": "$10,000 became $7,081 with Oil above its 10-month average (USO/cash), vs $5,245 in the Crude oil (USO), buy and hold.", "window": { "start": "2011-09-02", "end": "2026-09-02", "years": 15 }, "last_run": "2026-09-02T22:54:17Z", "primary_label": "Oil above its 10-month average (USO/cash)", "benchmark_label": "Buy and hold oil (USO)", "summary": { "final_value_of_10k": 7081.4, "benchmark_final_value_of_10k": 5244.87, "cagr": -0.0227, "max_drawdown": -0.6581 }, "metrics": { "Oil above its 10-month average (USO/cash)": { "start_date": "2011-09-02", "end_date": "2026-09-02", "years": 15, "total_return": -0.2919, "cagr": -0.0227, "max_drawdown": -0.6581, "volatility": 0.223, "sharpe": 0.008, "final_value_of_10k": 7081.4, "best_year": "2026", "best_year_return": 0.8004, "worst_year": "2016", "worst_year_return": -0.231, "calendar_year_returns": { "2011": -0.0582, "2012": -0.0728, "2013": -0.1803, "2014": -0.0749, "2015": 0, "2016": -0.231, "2017": -0.0172, "2018": 0.1196, "2019": -0.2304, "2020": -0.0771, "2021": 0.6009, "2022": 0.0241, "2023": -0.089, "2024": -0.1495, "2025": -0.222, "2026": 0.8004 } }, "Buy and hold oil (USO)": { "start_date": "2011-09-02", "end_date": "2026-09-02", "years": 15, "total_return": -0.4755, "cagr": -0.0421, "max_drawdown": -0.9493, "volatility": 0.3698, "sharpe": 0.071, "final_value_of_10k": 5244.87, "best_year": "2026", "best_year_return": 1.0409, "worst_year": "2020", "worst_year_return": -0.6779, "calendar_year_returns": { "2011": 0.1329, "2012": -0.1244, "2013": 0.0584, "2014": -0.4236, "2015": -0.4597, "2016": 0.0655, "2017": 0.0247, "2018": -0.1957, "2019": 0.3261, "2020": -0.6779, "2021": 0.6468, "2022": 0.2897, "2023": -0.0494, "2024": 0.1335, "2025": -0.0846, "2026": 1.0409 } } }, "url": "/ideas/oil-trend", "json": "/ideas/oil-trend.json" }, { "slug": "copper-gold-risk-switch", "name": "The Copper/Gold Switch", "tag": "commodities", "description": "Copper beating gold means growth: hold stocks. Gold winning means hold long bonds. Checked monthly.", "rule_text": "On the first trading day of each month, compare the copper/gold ratio (CPER divided by GLD) with its level three months earlier. If the ratio has RISEN — copper outperforming gold, the classic signal that growth expectations are improving — hold SPY for the month. If it has fallen, hold TLT (20+ year Treasuries) instead. Benchmark is a 60/40 SPY/TLT portfolio rebalanced each January.", "benchmark_name": "60/40 portfolio (SPY/TLT)", "headline": "$10,000 became $16,782 with Copper/gold switch (SPY or TLT), vs $14,303 in the 60/40 portfolio (SPY/TLT).", "window": { "start": "2012-02-15", "end": "2026-09-02", "years": 14.55 }, "last_run": "2026-09-02T22:54:17Z", "primary_label": "Copper/gold switch (SPY or TLT)", "benchmark_label": "60/40 (SPY/TLT)", "summary": { "final_value_of_10k": 16781.67, "benchmark_final_value_of_10k": 14303.19, "cagr": 0.0362, "max_drawdown": -0.4501 }, "metrics": { "Copper/gold switch (SPY or TLT)": { "start_date": "2012-02-15", "end_date": "2026-09-02", "years": 14.55, "total_return": 0.6782, "cagr": 0.0362, "max_drawdown": -0.4501, "volatility": 0.1379, "sharpe": 0.257, "final_value_of_10k": 16781.67, "best_year": "2021", "best_year_return": 0.3166, "worst_year": "2022", "worst_year_return": -0.29, "calendar_year_returns": { "2012": -0.0665, "2013": 0.1532, "2014": 0.1153, "2015": -0.0307, "2016": 0.1526, "2017": 0.1627, "2018": 0.0352, "2019": 0.0788, "2020": -0.0312, "2021": 0.3166, "2022": -0.29, "2023": 0.0958, "2024": -0.0026, "2025": -0.0565, "2026": 0.0315 } }, "60/40 (SPY/TLT)": { "start_date": "2012-02-15", "end_date": "2026-09-02", "years": 14.55, "total_return": 0.4303, "cagr": 0.0249, "max_drawdown": -0.0623, "volatility": 0.0251, "sharpe": 0.73, "final_value_of_10k": 14303.19, "best_year": "2014", "best_year_return": 0.1883, "worst_year": "2023", "worst_year_return": -0.001, "calendar_year_returns": { "2012": 0.0706, "2013": 0.1367, "2014": 0.1883, "2015": 0, "2016": -0.001, "2017": -0.001, "2018": -0.001, "2019": -0.001, "2020": -0.001, "2021": -0.001, "2022": -0.001, "2023": -0.001, "2024": -0.001, "2025": -0.001, "2026": -0.001 } } }, "url": "/ideas/copper-gold-risk-switch", "json": "/ideas/copper-gold-risk-switch.json" }, { "slug": "tlt-200dma-timing", "name": "Long Bonds, Only in an Uptrend", "tag": "bonds", "description": "Hold long Treasuries only above their 200-day average, cash below. Trend-following the bond market.", "rule_text": "Hold TLT (20+ year Treasuries) on every day after it closed ABOVE its 200-day moving average, and hold cash (0% return) on every day after it closed below. Benchmark is buying and holding TLT.", "benchmark_name": "20+ year Treasuries (TLT), buy and hold", "headline": "$10,000 became $7,296 with TLT above its 200-day (TLT/cash), vs $11,074 in the 20+ year Treasuries (TLT), buy and hold.", "window": { "start": "2011-09-02", "end": "2026-09-02", "years": 15 }, "last_run": "2026-09-02T22:54:17Z", "primary_label": "TLT above its 200-day (TLT/cash)", "benchmark_label": "Buy and hold TLT", "summary": { "final_value_of_10k": 7296.08, "benchmark_final_value_of_10k": 11074.05, "cagr": -0.0208, "max_drawdown": -0.5109 }, "metrics": { "TLT above its 200-day (TLT/cash)": { "start_date": "2011-09-02", "end_date": "2026-09-02", "years": 15, "total_return": -0.2704, "cagr": -0.0208, "max_drawdown": -0.5109, "volatility": 0.1092, "sharpe": -0.138, "final_value_of_10k": 7296.08, "best_year": "2014", "best_year_return": 0.1811, "worst_year": "2015", "worst_year_return": -0.2091, "calendar_year_returns": { "2011": 0.0883, "2012": -0.0277, "2013": -0.0369, "2014": 0.1811, "2015": -0.2091, "2016": 0.0958, "2017": 0.0385, "2018": -0.056, "2019": 0.1412, "2020": 0.1607, "2021": -0.0395, "2022": -0.0478, "2023": -0.1875, "2024": -0.173, "2025": -0.0533, "2026": -0.074 } }, "Buy and hold TLT": { "start_date": "2011-09-02", "end_date": "2026-09-02", "years": 15, "total_return": 0.1074, "cagr": 0.0068, "max_drawdown": -0.4835, "volatility": 0.1467, "sharpe": 0.12, "final_value_of_10k": 11074.05, "best_year": "2014", "best_year_return": 0.273, "worst_year": "2022", "worst_year_return": -0.3123, "calendar_year_returns": { "2011": 0.0894, "2012": 0.0241, "2013": -0.1338, "2014": 0.273, "2015": -0.0179, "2016": 0.0117, "2017": 0.0918, "2018": -0.0161, "2019": 0.1412, "2020": 0.1815, "2021": -0.046, "2022": -0.3123, "2023": 0.0277, "2024": -0.0805, "2025": 0.0425, "2026": -0.0321 } } }, "url": "/ideas/tlt-200dma-timing", "json": "/ideas/tlt-200dma-timing.json" }, { "slug": "semis-vs-market", "name": "Semiconductors vs the Market", "tag": "themes", "description": "Buy and hold semiconductors (SOXX) against SPY. The most cyclical sector in the market, measured.", "rule_text": "Buy SOXX (iShares Semiconductor ETF) and hold it. Benchmark is buying and holding SPY over exactly the same period.", "benchmark_name": "S&P 500 (SPY), buy and hold", "headline": "$10,000 became $381,358 with Semiconductors (SOXX), vs $84,528 in the S&P 500 (SPY), buy and hold.", "window": { "start": "2011-09-02", "end": "2026-09-02", "years": 15 }, "last_run": "2026-09-02T22:54:17Z", "primary_label": "Semiconductors (SOXX)", "benchmark_label": "S&P 500 (SPY)", "summary": { "final_value_of_10k": 381358.11, "benchmark_final_value_of_10k": 84528.5, "cagr": 0.2747, "max_drawdown": -0.4575 }, "metrics": { "Semiconductors (SOXX)": { "start_date": "2011-09-02", "end_date": "2026-09-02", "years": 15, "total_return": 37.1358, "cagr": 0.2747, "max_drawdown": -0.4575, "volatility": 0.3107, "sharpe": 0.939, "final_value_of_10k": 381358.11, "best_year": "2023", "best_year_return": 0.6712, "worst_year": "2022", "worst_year_return": -0.3509, "calendar_year_returns": { "2011": 0.069, "2012": 0.0662, "2013": 0.4158, "2014": 0.2985, "2015": -0.0202, "2016": 0.3834, "2017": 0.3979, "2018": -0.0649, "2019": 0.6242, "2020": 0.5272, "2021": 0.4409, "2022": -0.3509, "2023": 0.6712, "2024": 0.1292, "2025": 0.4074, "2026": 0.6669 } }, "S&P 500 (SPY)": { "start_date": "2011-09-02", "end_date": "2026-09-02", "years": 15, "total_return": 7.4529, "cagr": 0.1529, "max_drawdown": -0.3372, "volatility": 0.1683, "sharpe": 0.932, "final_value_of_10k": 84528.5, "best_year": "2013", "best_year_return": 0.3231, "worst_year": "2022", "worst_year_return": -0.1818, "calendar_year_returns": { "2011": 0.0772, "2012": 0.1599, "2013": 0.3231, "2014": 0.1346, "2015": 0.0123, "2016": 0.12, "2017": 0.2171, "2018": -0.0457, "2019": 0.3122, "2020": 0.1833, "2021": 0.2873, "2022": -0.1818, "2023": 0.2618, "2024": 0.2489, "2025": 0.1772, "2026": 0.1279 } } }, "url": "/ideas/semis-vs-market", "json": "/ideas/semis-vs-market.json" }, { "slug": "xbi-vs-ibb", "name": "Small Biotech vs Big Biotech", "tag": "themes", "description": "Buy and hold equal-weight biotech (XBI) against cap-weight biotech (IBB). Weighting is the whole story.", "rule_text": "Buy XBI (SPDR S&P Biotech ETF, which weights its holdings roughly equally) and hold it. Benchmark is buying and holding IBB (iShares Biotechnology ETF, which is capitalisation-weighted) over exactly the same period.", "benchmark_name": "Nasdaq Biotech (IBB), buy and hold", "headline": "$10,000 became $85,221 with Equal-weight biotech (XBI), vs $71,486 in the Nasdaq Biotech (IBB), buy and hold.", "window": { "start": "2011-09-02", "end": "2026-09-02", "years": 15 }, "last_run": "2026-09-02T22:54:17Z", "primary_label": "Equal-weight biotech (XBI)", "benchmark_label": "Cap-weight biotech (IBB)", "summary": { "final_value_of_10k": 85221.09, "benchmark_final_value_of_10k": 71486.17, "cagr": 0.1535, "max_drawdown": -0.6389 }, "metrics": { "Equal-weight biotech (XBI)": { "start_date": "2011-09-02", "end_date": "2026-09-02", "years": 15, "total_return": 7.5221, "cagr": 0.1535, "max_drawdown": -0.6389, "volatility": 0.319, "sharpe": 0.609, "final_value_of_10k": 85221.09, "best_year": "2013", "best_year_return": 0.4839, "worst_year": "2022", "worst_year_return": -0.2587, "calendar_year_returns": { "2011": 0.0977, "2012": 0.3269, "2013": 0.4839, "2014": 0.4497, "2015": 0.1358, "2016": -0.1545, "2017": 0.4377, "2018": -0.1528, "2019": 0.3256, "2020": 0.4833, "2021": -0.2045, "2022": -0.2587, "2023": 0.076, "2024": 0.0101, "2025": 0.3589, "2026": 0.3576 } }, "Cap-weight biotech (IBB)": { "start_date": "2011-09-02", "end_date": "2026-09-02", "years": 15, "total_return": 6.1486, "cagr": 0.1401, "max_drawdown": -0.3982, "volatility": 0.2387, "sharpe": 0.67, "final_value_of_10k": 71486.17, "best_year": "2013", "best_year_return": 0.6554, "worst_year": "2016", "worst_year_return": -0.2142, "calendar_year_returns": { "2011": 0.124, "2012": 0.3213, "2013": 0.6554, "2014": 0.3383, "2015": 0.1156, "2016": -0.2142, "2017": 0.2108, "2018": -0.0953, "2019": 0.2542, "2020": 0.2601, "2021": 0.0095, "2022": -0.1369, "2023": 0.0376, "2024": -0.0241, "2025": 0.2798, "2026": 0.2679 } } }, "url": "/ideas/xbi-vs-ibb", "json": "/ideas/xbi-vs-ibb.json" } ] }