Missing the Best (and Worst) Days
TimingStart with SPY buy and hold. Then build two hypotheticals: one that earns a 0% return on the 10 single best days of the window, and one that skips the 10 worst days. Everything else identical.
See this in the terminal — live earnings bands, fair value and rates.
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The scariest chart in investing isn't a crash. It's what happens when you miss ten days.
The rule. Start with SPY buy and hold. Then build two hypotheticals: one that earns a 0% return on the 10 single best days of the window, and one that skips the 10 worst days. Everything else identical.
What actually happened.
- $10,000 became $44,634. The same $10,000 in Fully invested (SPY) became $84,528. This strategy trailed the benchmark by $39,895.
- Compounded at 10.5% a year vs 15.3% for the benchmark.
- Best year: 2013 (+32%). Worst year: 2020 (-23%). This is not a smooth ride.
The catch. At its worst, this strategy fell -50% from a prior peak — deeper than the benchmark's -34%. Would you have held through that? Most people don't. That's the whole game.
The takeaway. The lesson isn't "this idea is stupid." It's that the simple, boring benchmark is harder to beat than the pitch decks admit. Before you try to be clever, respect the index.
Drawdown from prior peak
Calendar-year returns
| Line | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miss 10 best days | +8% | +16% | +32% | +13% | +1% | +12% | +22% | -9% | +31% | -23% | +29% | -22% | +26% | +25% | +7% | +13% |
| Fully invested (SPY) | +8% | +16% | +32% | +13% | +1% | +12% | +22% | -5% | +31% | +18% | +29% | -18% | +26% | +25% | +18% | +13% |
| Miss 10 worst days | +8% | +16% | +32% | +13% | +1% | +12% | +22% | -5% | +31% | +105% | +29% | -18% | +26% | +25% | +32% | +13% |
This is illustrative: nobody can systematically avoid only the worst days or only miss the best. The best and worst days cluster together, usually during volatile periods. How we test
Rebalance: none (buy and hold) · Window: 2011-09-02 → 2026-09-02 · Last run Sep 2, 2026 · JSON