Gold, Only in an Uptrend
CommoditiesHold GLD on every day after it closed ABOVE its 200-day moving average, and hold cash (0% return) on every day after it closed below. Benchmark is buying and holding GLD.
See this in the terminal — live earnings bands, fair value and rates.
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Trend-following gold means selling every scare and buying every recovery late. It cost you.
The rule. Hold GLD on every day after it closed ABOVE its 200-day moving average, and hold cash (0% return) on every day after it closed below. Benchmark is buying and holding GLD.
What actually happened.
- $10,000 became $14,873. The same $10,000 in Buy and hold gold (GLD) became $21,981. This strategy trailed the benchmark by $7,108.
- Compounded at 2.7% a year vs 5.4% for the benchmark.
- Best year: 2025 (+64%). Worst year: 2011 (-17%). This is not a smooth ride.
The catch. At its worst, this strategy fell -37% from a prior peak — shallower than the benchmark's -45%. Would you have held through that? Most people don't. That's the whole game.
The takeaway. The lesson isn't "this idea is stupid." It's that the simple, boring benchmark is harder to beat than the pitch decks admit. Before you try to be clever, respect the index.
Drawdown from prior peak
Calendar-year returns
| Line | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold above its 200-day (GLD/cash) | -17% | -1% | -5% | -15% | -5% | +7% | -4% | -1% | +18% | +18% | -16% | -10% | +7% | +27% | +64% | -2% |
| Buy and hold gold (GLD) | -17% | +7% | -28% | -2% | -11% | +8% | +13% | -2% | +18% | +25% | -4% | -1% | +13% | +27% | +64% | +2% |
Cash earns 0% while the rule is out of the market; a real T-bill sleeve would add to this line, especially in high-rate years. How we test
Rebalance: daily check (in above the 200-day average, cash below) · Window: 2011-09-02 → 2026-09-02 · Last run Sep 2, 2026 · JSON