Buy the Dip
TimingHold cash (0% return). Whenever SPY closes at least 10% below its prior all-time high AND you are currently in cash, buy SPY and hold for one year, then sell back to cash. Benchmark is staying fully invested in SPY the whole time.
See this in the terminal — live earnings bands, fair value and rates.
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Everyone loves buying the dip. Sitting in cash waiting for one quietly wrecked the return.
The rule. Hold cash (0% return). Whenever SPY closes at least 10% below its prior all-time high AND you are currently in cash, buy SPY and hold for one year, then sell back to cash. Benchmark is staying fully invested in SPY the whole time.
What actually happened.
- $10,000 became $24,824. The same $10,000 in Always invested (SPY) became $84,528. This strategy trailed the benchmark by $59,705.
- Compounded at 6.2% a year vs 15.3% for the benchmark.
- Best year: 2020 (+28%). Worst year: 2022 (-10%). This is not a smooth ride.
The catch. At its worst, this strategy fell -30% from a prior peak — shallower than the benchmark's -34%. Would you have held through that? Most people don't. That's the whole game.
The takeaway. The lesson isn't "this idea is stupid." It's that the simple, boring benchmark is harder to beat than the pitch decks admit. Before you try to be clever, respect the index.
Drawdown from prior peak
Calendar-year returns
| Line | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buy the dip (cash otherwise) | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | +9% | +8% | 0% | -1% | +8% | +28% | +4% | -10% | +26% | +7% | +25% | -3% |
| Always invested (SPY) | +8% | +16% | +32% | +13% | +1% | +12% | +22% | -5% | +31% | +18% | +29% | -18% | +26% | +25% | +18% | +13% |
Rebalance: event-driven (on 10% drawdown), 1-year holding period · Window: 2011-09-02 → 2026-09-02 · Last run Sep 2, 2026 · JSON